Deckblatt

Contents

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Motivations 1
1.2 Objectives 2
1.3 Theoretical Framework and Data for Empirical Analysis 4
1.4 Overview 5

2.1 Introduction 7
2.2 Rural Characteristics and Development on Regional Labor Market 7
2.3 Agricultural Structural Changes 9

3.1 Introduction 11
3.2 Characteristics of General Economy in Nordrhein-Westfalen 11
3.3 Agricultural Structural Changes in Nordrhein-Westfalen 12

4.1 Introduction 14
4.2 Elements of the Agricultural Household Model 16

4.2.1 Basic Structure of the Agricultural Household Model 16
4.2.2 Economic Decisions in Case of Positive Off-farm Work 19
4.2.3 Economic Decisions in Case of No Off-farm Work 23
4.2.4 Recursivity and Non-recursivity 26
4.2.5 Shadow Price of Time and Participation Decision 26

4.3 Directions of Extensions 33

5.1 Introduction 35
5.2 Theoretical Model and Its Implications 37

5.2.1 Model 37
5.2.2 Participation Condition 37
5.2.3 Farm Work Decisions in Case of No Off-farm Work 39
5.2.4 Farm Work Decisions in Case of Positive Off-farm Work 41
5.2.5 Summary of theoretical results from the model 49

5.3 Econometric Model 50
5.4 Data and Variables to be Used in Estimation 52
5.5 Estimation Results and Discussions 55

5.5.1 Off-farm Work Participation 55
5.5.2 Farm Work Time 57

5.6 Summary and Concluding Remarks 60

6.1 Introduction 62
6.2 Some Preliminary Considerations about Labor Supply Decisions of Families 62

6.2.1 Decision Mechanism 63
6.2.2 Family Size and Structure 64

6.3 Joint Utility Model and the Problems of Individual Reservation Approach 65

6.3.1 Model and the Conventional Approach to Construct an Econometric Model 65
6.3.2 the Problem of the conventional multivariate probit approach 69
6.3.3 Indirect Utility and Multinomial Logit Approach 74

6.4 Data 77
6.5 Estimation Results and Discussion 81

6.5.1 Bivariate Probit 81
6.5.2 Multinomial Logit (MNL) 84
6.5.3 Evaluation of Models by scalar criteria 86
Digression: Basic Concepts of Information Theory and the Rationale for Hauser’s statistic 89
6.5.4 The Predicted Effects of Changes in Explanatory Variables 91

6.6 Summary and Concluding Remarks 96
Appendix : The product of the slope of reservation wage line AB and CD around the point P 98

7.1 Introduction 100
7.2 Data Structure for Estimation and Some Preliminary Observations 103

7.2.1 Data Structure 103
7.2.2 Job Status Transition between 1979 and 1991 104

7.3 Structural State Dependence and Spurious Dependence 105
7.4 Model 106

7.4.1 Theoretical Model 106
7.4.2 Econometric Model 109

7.5 Estimation and Results 113

7.5.1 Variables Used in Estimation 113
7.5.2 Estimation Results and Discussions 115
7.5.3 Possible Reasons for Positive Effect of Off-farm Work Experience on Stay Decision 119

7.6 Summary and Concluding Remarks 120

Reference 125

Lebenslauf