133.2 FAXON'S 1996 SUBSCRIPTION PRICE PRELIMINARY PROJECTIONS, Ronald Akie
133.3 READMORE'S 1996 PRELIMINARY JOURNAL PRICING PREDICTIONS, Harry Hoffer
133.4 EBSCO'S 1996 SERIAL PRICE PROJECTIONS, Laura Ralstin,
Marcia Tuttle, tuttle@gibbs.oit.unc.edu.
I want to apologize for the long gap between issue 131 and issues 132 and 133. Reality has intruded in my professional life in the form of planning for the NASIG conference, preparing for a significant serials cancellation project, and the normal daily life of a serials librarian. Apologies also to the contributors to the newsletter who sent messages in January and early February. I have them and they will appear in the next issue(s), which I expect to distribute very soon. I thought it essential to get out the subscription agencies' pricing projections for 1996 before anything else.133.2 FAXON'S 1996 SUBSCRIPTION PRICE PRELIMINARY PROJECTIONS,
Ronald Akie, The Faxon Company, akie@faxon.com.
[Received January 26, 1995. -ed]
Based on the latest information on publisher price increases, world econom-
ic conditions, and current and projected values of the U.S. dollar, Faxon
is projecting the following changes in journal subscription prices for 1996
subscriptions. Please note that these are preliminary projections based on
current conditions and are subject to change as the year progresses.
North American European
Titles Titles
Page Inflation 2.5% 3.0%
Paper/Postage 3.0% 3.0%
General Inflation 2.5% 2.0%
Cancellations 2.5% 3.0%
Currency Changes N/A 7.5%
Total Increase 10.5% 18.5%
Typical Overall Increase 13.1%
(based on 67% U.S., 33% European collection)
The increases detailed in each category above represent the net effect that
each component is expected to have on the final subscription price. For
example, European title page increases in total are expected to be closer
to 6%, but the net effect on the price will be 3%.
Key Assumptions
* Page Inflation: Even with tighter editorial standards, increased manu-
script submissions will result in more published pages again next year.
* Paper and Postage: After several years of stability, paper prices have
sky-rocketed due to very limited inventories. Postal costs have also risen.
* General Inflation: Inflation in both Europe and the U.S. has been ac-
celerating and is expected to continue to rise at moderate levels.
* Cancellations: Publishers continue to see increased subscription can-
cellations and must therefore allocate increasing fixed costs over a
shrinking unit base.
* Currency: The U.S. dollar has fallen approximately 10% against key
European currencies since last year. We have recently seen some strengthen-
ing of the U.S. dollar since the Federal Reserve Bank has raised interest
rates, and we expect this to continue. At the time publishers set their
1996 prices, we expect the U.S. dollar will be approximately 7% below last
year's level and will strengthen further into the Fall.
1995 Actual Subscription Price Increases.
For 1995 subscriptions, Faxon's May 1994 price projections proved to be
within 1% of the actual increases:
Faxon Projection Actual 1995
May 1994 Increase
North American Titles 9.9% 9.8%
European Titles 10.4% 9.6%
Typical Overall Increase 10.5% 9.7%
Calculating our Projections.
In making our projections, we look at many factors including consumer price
inflation by country for major publishers; paper costs and futures; and
postal rates. In addition, we survey publishers on their expectations for
page and volume increases, and we consult economic and financial experts.
Over the course of the year, we update our projections based on the status
of the U.S. dollar, conversations with financial experts and communications
with publishers. So, if you are using our projections, please be sure you
have the latest information available. These price projections were made in
January 1995.
133.3 READMORE'S 1996 PRELIMINARY JOURNAL PRICING PREDICTIONS
Harry Hoffer, Readmore, Inc., hoffer@readmore.com.
[Received January 31, 1995. -ed.]
Because many of our clients have already begun planning their budgets for
1996, Readmore, Inc. has developed preliminary price predictions for 1996.
Please note that the predictions listed below are preliminary and will be
updated periodically as Readmore obtains more information from publishers.
Elements of Price Increases for 1996 Periodicals
Country: US
Inflation, page increases & increases due to unit reductions: 10%
Currency fluctuation: n/a
NET increase (decrease): 10%
Country: Foreign
Inflation, page increases & increases due to unit reductions: 10%
Currency fluctuation: 6-9%
NET increase (decrease): 16-19%
133.4 EBSCO'S 1996 SERIAL PRICE PROJECTIONS
Laura Ralstin, EBSCO Corporate Communications, at_your_service@ebsco.com.
[Press release received February 17, 1995. -ed.]
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. -- Based on current economic indicators and historical
data on publisher price increases, EBSCO has released preliminary projec-
tions for 1996 serials prices. At this point, overall price increases of
12.5 - 13.5 percent are projected.
For journals published in the United States, a 10 - 11 percent increase is
expected (a slightly lower increase is expected for consumer-oriented ti-
tles). For journals published in Europe, estimated price increases are as
follows:
European journals priced in U.S. dollars or with fixed conversion rates:
17 - 19%
(Approximately 10 - 11 percent of this projected increase is inflation in
the price of journals; 7 - 8 percent is due to currency fluctuation that
has occurred since prices were set for 1995 subscriptions.)
Journals priced with variable rates: 10.5 - 12.5%
(Approximately 10 - 11 percent of this projected increase is inflation in
the price of journals; 0.5 - 1.5 percent is due to currency fluctuation
that has occurred since publishers were paid for 1995 subscriptions.)
Again, these figures are based on the current U.S. dollar exchange rates
for the currencies of the given countries of origin. "The estimated price
increase for European journals priced in U.S. dollars will be most applica-
ble to U.S. libraries, as most major European publishers now set prices in
U.S. dollars for U.S. customers instead of pricing them in native curren-
cies. These rates are generally set in mid to late summer," said F. Dixon
Brooke Jr., Vice President, EBSCO Subscription Services Division General
Manager. One component of U.S. dollar rates is the strength of the U.S.
dollar as compared to publishers' native currencies at the time these rates
are set, so it is difficult to predict the eventual price of such journals
this early in the year. Journals priced with variable rates will be affec-
ted by the strength of the U.S. dollar in early fall when publishers are
paid for these journals.
As always, EBSCO recommends adding 3 - 5 percent to the estimated price
increases for all journals to protect library budgets from a weakening in
the dollar's value between now and when rates are set or publishers are
paid.
Other factors influencing journal prices this year include double-digit
increases in the cost of white, non-recycled paper and in U.S., postage
rates. EBSCO will provide updated estimates on the cost of 1996 subscrip-
tions in the coming months.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Statements of fact and opinion appearing in the _Newsletter on Serials Pricing Issues_ are made on the responsibility of the authors alone, and do not imply the endorsement of the editor, the editorial board, or the Uni- versity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Readers of the NEWSLETTER ON SERIALS PRICING ISSUES are encouraged to share the information in the newsletter by electronic or paper methods. We would appreciate credit if you quote from the newsletter. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The NEWSLETTER ON SERIALS PRICING ISSUES (ISSN: 1046-3410) is published by the editor through the Office of Information Technology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, as news is available. Editor: Marcia Tuttle, Internet: tuttle@gibbs.oit.unc.edu; Paper mail: Serials Department, CB #3938 Davis Library, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill NC 27514-8890; Telephone: 919 962-1067; FAX: 919 962-4450. Editorial Board: Deana Astle (Clemson University), Christian Boissonnas (Cornell University), Jerry Curtis (Springer Verlag New York), Janet Fisher (MIT Press), Fred Friend (University College London), Charles Hamaker (Louisiana State University), Daniel Jones (University of Texas Health Science Cen- ter), James Mouw (University of Chicago), and Heather Steele (Blackwell's Periodicals Division). The Newsletter is available on the Internet, Black- well's CONNECT, and Readmore's ROSS. EBSCO customers may receive the News- letter in paper format. To subscribe to the newsletter send a message to LISTSERV@UNC.EDU saying SUBSCRIBE PRICES [YOUR NAME]. Be sure to send that message to the listserv- er and not to Prices. You must include your name. To unsubscribe (no name required in message), you must send the message from the e-mail address by which you are subscribed. If you have problems, please contact the editor. Back issues of the Newsletter are available electronically. To get a list of available issues send a message to LISTSERV@UNC.EDU saying INDEX PRICES. To retrieve a specific issue, the message should read: GET PRICES PRICES.xx (where "xx" is the number of the issue). +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++