NEWSLETTER ON SERIALS PRICING ISSUES

NO 145 -- September 26, 1995

Editor: Marcia Tuttle

ISSN: 1046-3410


CONTENTS

145.1 FAXON 1996 SERIALS PRICE PROJECTIONS ON TARGET, Teri Harrison Wilson [press release]

145.2 EBSCO 1996 GLOBAL SERIALS PRICE PROJECTIONS UPDATE, Laura Ralstin [press release]

145.3 ELECTRONIC JOURNALS AND IOP, Kurt Paulus


145.1 FAXON 1996 SERIALS PRICE PROJECTIONS ON TARGET

Teri Harrison Wilson, The Faxon Company,harrison@faxon.com.

PRESS RELEASE

Westwood, MA, September 19, 1995. With many 1996 publisher price
lists now in hand, Faxon has analyzed actual journal subscription
price increases versus its projections made earlier this year.
The actual 1996 subscription price increases correspond to the
projections, showing high increases for European journals due to
a weak US dollar.

The last projections, made in June 1995, are provided below,
along with preliminary actual increases based on publisher price
lists received to date:

                                June 1995               Actual
                                Projections           Preliminary

     North American Titles         10.5%                10-11%
     Continental European Titles   23.5%                24.0%
     UK Titles                     15.0%                14.0%

     Typical Overall
     Collection Increase           14.8%                14.5%

"As we predicted earlier in the year, the weakness of the US
dollar against the continental European currencies is largely
responsible for high increases for journals from those
countries," said Ron Akie, Senior Vice President of Marketing.
"We saw the same effect in 1991 and 1993, other years when the
dollar weakened."

While the US dollar has strengthened very recently, this will
only affect European journals where publishers set the price in
their own currency and let the exchange rate float with market
rates. These are primarily smaller publishers whose journals make
up a small portion of most US library collections. Therefore, the
dollar's strengthening so late in the year will have little net
impact for most clients. The larger European publishers either
set their prices in US dollars or fix the exchange rate earlier
in the year.

The detailed breakdown of price increases by component from
Faxon's June 1995 projection is provided below:

                        N. American     Continental     UK
                        Titles          European        Titles
     Page Inflation        2.5%          3.0%             2.0%
     Paper/Postage         3.0%          3.0%             3.0%
     General Inflation     2.5%          2.0%             2.0%
     Cancellations         2.5%          3.0%             3.0%
     Currency Changes      N/A          12.5%             5.0%

     Total Increase       10.5%         23.5%            15.0%

Typical overall increase  14.8%

145.2 EBSCO 1996 GLOBAL SERIALS PRICE PROJECTIONS UPDATE

Laura Ralstin, EBSCO Subscription Services, lralstin%corpcomm.ebsco@iss.ebsco.com.

PRESS RELEASE, September 19, 1995

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. Subscription rates for 1996 have been received
from most major publishers. As predicted earlier this year, base
price increases for most journals fall within the average range
of 10 to 11 percent. U.S. libraries that subscribe to European
journals for which publishers set U.S. dollar prices face the
steepest increases -- 21 to 23 percent. For libraries worldwide
subscribing to journals priced in publishers' country-of-origin
currencies, exchange rates in effect at the time publishers are
paid for next year's subscriptions will determine ultimate
prices.

The recent increase in the value of the U.S. dollar (due in part
to organized buying of dollars by the central banks of major
countries worldwide) has caused us to revise our predictions
slightly upward for U.S. journals bought by European libraries
and to lower our predictions for European journals priced in
country-of-origin currency and bought by U.S. libraries. 
Japanese subscribers will likely pay more than was predicted
earlier for U.S. and European journals, partially due to cuts in
the Japanese discount rate and the organized U.S. dollar buying
mentioned above, which have resulted in a decreased value of the
yen.  

       *Projected increases by customer billing currency* 

Updated projections for libraries invoiced in selected currencies
are provided below.

A base price increase of 10 to 11 percent for 1996 journal
subscriptions is assumed in these projections. This range is
based on historical data and on recent information received from
publishers.

For U.S. journals, projections are based on estimated
subscription price increases and the current, relative value of
the customer billing currency compared to the U.S. dollar.
(Mid-September currency exchange rates were used for these
projections.)

For European journals, projections are based on estimated
subscription price increases and the current, relative value of
the customer billing currency compared to that of a European
currency composite. The European currency composite is the
average value of the British pound, French franc, German mark,
Dutch guilder and Swiss franc. Mid-September currency exchange
rates were used for these projections. Ranges shown are for
European journals published outside the corresponding country 
for each billing currency (e.g., the projected increase for
customers invoiced in British pounds does not apply to U.K.
journals).

      PROJECTED PRICE INCREASES BY CUSTOMER BILLING CURRENCY

  Customer                   Projected               Projected
  Billing                    Increase for            Increase for
  Currency                   U.S. Journals           European     
                                                     Journals
    
______________________________________________________________
Australian dollar          10.0 - 12.0%            13.0 - 15.0%
British pound              10.0 - 12.0%            13.0 - 15.0%
Canadian dollar             9.0 - 11.0%            15.0 - 17.0%
Dutch guilder               5.0 -  7.0%             8.0 - 10.0%
French franc                5.0 -  7.0%             8.0 - 10.0%
German mark                 5.0 -  7.0%             8.0 - 10.0%
Italian lira                9.0 - 11.0%            13.0 - 15.0%
Japanese yen                9.0 - 11.0%            12.0 - 14.0%
New Zealand dollar          5.0 -  7.0%             9.0 - 11.0%   
South African rand         13.0 - 15.0%            14.0 - 16.0%
Spanish peseta              4.0 -  6.0%             9.0 - 11.0%
Turkish lira               28.0 - 30.0%            29.0 - 31.0%
U.S. dollar                10.0 - 11.0%            11.0 - 13.0%*  
                                                   21.0 - 23.0%**

*For European journals priced in country-of-origin currency --
journals priced in this manner will be affected by the strength
of the U.S. dollar in early fall when publishers are paid for
these journals. This range will be lower for journals published
in the United Kingdom, as the dollar has not lost as much
strength against the British pound as it has against other 
European currencies.

**For European journals priced in U.S. dollars or with fixed
conversion rates -- this rate is most applicable to U.S.
libraries, as most major European publishers now set prices in
U.S. dollars for U.S. customers instead of pricing in native
currencies. These rates are generally set in mid to late summer.
One component of U.S. dollar rates is the strength of the U.S.
dollar as compared to publishers' native currencies at the time
these rates are set.

145.3 ELECTRONIC JOURNALS AND IOP

Kurt Paulus, Institute of Physics Publishing, kurt.k.paulus@ioppl.co.uk.

All Institute of Physics journals will be available, in full, on
World Wide Web by Spring 1996. Electronic access is included in
the 1996 price of full-rate subscriptions announced recently. We
believe that price rises are competitive with or lower than those
of most other publishers who are not providing electronic access.

There are three principal reasons for launching this ambitious
programme, which will start with the release of the first
journals in January. Firstly, as a not-for-profit publisher owned
by a learned society -- the Institute of Physics, London --
Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP) has a responsibility to
play its full part in electronic communication, helping to get
information disseminated ever more widely. Secondly, IOPP has a 
responsibility to continue supporting the learned and educational
activities of the Institute, in the UK and elsewhere,
financially.

Finally, IOPP as a learned society publisher must move with the
needs of the scientific community and play its part in an orderly
transition to new modes of communication, if that is indeed what
is about to happen. So, we will make all our journals available
electronically; we will experiment with informal communication
such as preprints; and we will introduce new services and
products.

Building on our experience to date with _Classical and Quantum
Gravity Online_ and _Physics Express Letters_ we have been able
to narrow down the available options for delivering journals
electronically. We decided on World Wide Web as the vehicle for
delivery because of its functionality and increasing popularity.
We have chosen HTML for interface and headers, but concluded that
the current version was not sufficiently flexible for our highly
mathematical material. We therefore shall offer Acrobat PDF and 
Postscript for full text, maths and figures.

Pricing is a critical area. We have already invested heavily in
electronic journal development and expect to continue doing so.
Much of this investment is in staff, for mounting more than
60,000 pages of articles a year in attractive and searchable
form, and with the attendant registration and support services.
Rather than -- like most publishers to date -- surcharging
subscribers we have decided to absorb the cost in our general
price. This has advantages for us as well as libraries: if past
experience is any guide, it offers great improvement in take-up
and readership, and hence in the service we and the libraries
offer to end users. All legitimate users belonging to sites that
have taken out a full-rate subscription will be able to get
access; no new purchasing decisions have to be made by existing 
subscribers; it is simple and orders for print subscriptions can
be placed direct or through agents in the normal way. We hope
that our investment can be recouped by reducing a little the
cancellations that we have all seen over the years.

In implementing this approach, we shall have to work very closely
with the libraries. We think we have devised the simplest system
for providing access: it will be based on the IP number(s) of the
site -- here we will need the help of the library -- and then
individual users will assign their own ID and passwords.

You may already have tried our WWW server but if not, have a look
at http://www.iop.org. Further details of the electronic journals
programme, and particularly the registration and access
arrangements, will be announced there over the next few months.

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Statements of fact and opinion appearing in the _Newsletter on
Serials Pricing Issues_ are made on the responsibility of the
authors alone, and do not imply the endorsement of the editor,
the editorial board, or the University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill.
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The NEWSLETTER ON SERIALS PRICING ISSUES (ISSN: 1046-3410) is
published by the editor through the Office of Information
Technology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, as
news is available. Editor: Marcia Tuttle, Internet:
tuttle@gibbs.oit.unc.edu; Paper mail: Serials Department, 
CB #3938 Davis Library, University of North Carolina at Chapel
Hill, Chapel Hill NC 27514-8890; Telephone: 919 962-1067; FAX:
919 962-4450. Editorial Board: Deana Astle (Clemson University),
Christian Boissonnas (Cornell University), Jerry Curtis (Springer
Verlag New York), Janet Fisher (MIT Press), Fred Friend
(University College, London), Charles Hamaker (Louisiana State
University), Daniel Jones (University of Texas Health Science 
Center), Michael Markwith (Swets North America), James Mouw
(University of Chicago), and Heather Steele (Blackwell's
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