153.2 FAXON'S 1997 PRELIMINARY SUBSCRIPTION PRICE PROJECTIONS, Teri Harrison
153.3 1997 SUBSCRIPTION PRICE PROJECTIONS FOR CANADIAN LIBRARIES, Virginia Roy
153.4 ROYAL SOCIETY OF CHEMISTRY JOURNAL PRICING, 1996, Barry Anderson
153.5 ACCESS VS OWNERSHIP AS IT RELATES TO LSU AND UNCOVER, Dana Roth
153.6 ONLINE JOURNALS: A NEW SURVEY, Steve Hitchcock
153.7 PUBLISHERS' COSTS, Al Henderson
Daniel H. Jones, University of Texas Health Science Center San Antonio, jones@blis.uthscsa.edu.
We were so fortunate to have the ALA Mid-Winter meeting here in San Antonio, bringing together so many members of the serials industry. I planned to look for 1997 price projections to begin planning our next budget cycle, but got so distracted by the needs of being at work and by several excellent discussion groups, that I actually had little time to spend in the exhibits.
With most (98%) of our 1996 subscriptions billed now we are disturbed about the increases we've seen this year. For our medium-sized academic health science library the increases break out as follows: Average price of a domestic subscription increased 12% over 1995 prices; Average price of a foreign subscription increased 21.2% over 1995 prices; Overall average price of one of our subscriptions in 1996 increased 16% over 1995 prices.
While I know that all of us need to plan for 1997 prices (and I have already asked vendors and publishers what they are expecting for 1997), I have to wonder if we aren't somehow contributing to a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we hear that prices will increase 10%, won't we ask for 10% more, thereby suggesting to publishers that we'll do what we can to afford 10% more, thereby giving them a sense that the market will probably bear a 10% increase?
Instead of asking what we can expect for 1997, I wonder if we shouldn't be stating what we are willing to spend, or at least what percentage increase we are willing to allocate for current subscriptions for 1997. Are there any libraries that are deciding now that they will only spend 2%, 3%, 5% more on serials next year? Do we not need to counter the vendor projections with a response that might have a governing effect so that publishers perhaps might be more cautious about the increases they allow their editors? Is this a dialogue that we should carry out in full view of publishers and vendors so that they to can know what to project for their own needs for 1997? Is the NEWSLETTER a forum for such a dialogue?
153.2 FAXON'S 1997 PRELIMINARY SUBSCRIPTION PRICE PROJECTIONS
Teri Harrison, The Faxon Company, harrison@faxon.com.
Based on the latest information on publisher price increases, world economic conditions, and the current and projected values of the US dollar, Faxon is projecting the following changes in journal subscription prices for 1997 subscriptions.
Please note that these are preliminary projections based on current conditions and are subject to changes as the year progresses. We are projecting an approximate overall increase of 9.3 percent for a typical collection. This estimate is based on our expectation that a strong US dollar will keep increases for European journals below 10 percent.
North Continental
America Europe U.K. Other
General Inflation 2.8% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0%
Publishing Factors
Paper 0 0 0 0
Postage 0 0 0 0
Page/Volume Increase 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 2.0%
Cancellations 4.5% 5.0% 4.5% 3.0%
Currency 0 0 to -3% 0 to -3% 0
TOTAL 10.3% 8.0 to 11.0% 7.1 to 10.1% 7.0%
TYPICAL COLLECTION INCREASE*
% of Budget $ x Increase = Total
North American 60% x 10.3% = 6.18
Continental Eur 25% x 8.0 to 11.0% = 2.0 to 2.75
U.K. 10% x 7.1 to 10.1% = 0.71 to 0.10
Other 5% x 7.0% = .35
TOTAL INCREASE 9.24 to 9.38%
* To determine the overall increase for your own collection,
multiply the % of Budget $ of your collection for each category
above by the Increase listed and add the resulting numbers, as
illustrated above.Key Assumptions
Paper and Postage: We do not expect any direct increase due to either of these factors for 1997. In fact, paper prices will probably be lower.
Page/Volume Increases: Increased manuscript submissions and pressures to publishers will continue to increase publishers' costs, even with more stringent publication criteria. We are estimating 3 to 3.5% increase for this.
Cancellations: Subscription cancellations and shifts to other technologies will continue to be a major factor in publishers' price-setting decisions. While we did not generally see massive library cancellation projects for 1996 subscriptions, the gradual erosion of subscriptions continues to affect publishers' costs in a direct way. We will be better able to provide a more accurate estimate of this factor later this year, once publishers have completed their analysis of their 1996 orders and cancellations.
Currency: We expect the US Dollar to remain stable or stronger through 1996. Many analysts believe that 1995 marked the end of a ten-year downward trend for the US dollar. Sustained moderate economic growth, low inflation, the prospect of a balanced budget and a strong influx of foreign investment will all help the dollar.
At the same time, European countries are likely to cut their interest rates to spur sluggish economies, and Germany, in particular, will likely try to keep the Mark reigned in for the benefit of the European Monetary Union. These factors will also contribute to a stronger dollar.
For the purpose of this very early projection, we are therefore projecting that the US dollar will remain at least as strong as in 1995 and could possibly strengthen further through the year. This will mean that US libraries should see no increase due to currency exchange for 1997 subscriptions. In fact, if the dollar does strengthen, it is possible that the currency effect will be positive, offsetting the base price increases.
153.3 1997 SUBSCRIPTION PRICE PROJECTIONS FOR CANADIAN LIBRARIES
Virginia Roy, Faxon Canada, virginia@faxon.ca.
Preliminary Projections -- February 1996
Based on the latest information on publisher price increases, Canadian and world economic conditions, and the current value of the Canadian dollar, Faxon Canada is projecting the following changes in journal prices for 1997 subscriptions. Please note that these are preliminary projections based on current conditions and will be revised as the year progresses. Faxon Canada is the only serials agency that makes price projections solely based on the unique factors that affect Canadian libraries.
The increase detailed in each category below represents the net effect that each component is expected to have on final subscription price increases.
General Page/Volume Cancella- Currency Total
Inflation Changes tions Changes
_______________________________________________________________
Canadian 1.7% 3.0% 4.5% n/a 9.2%
Material
_______________________________________________________________
US Material 2.8% 3.0% 4.5% 2.3% 12.6%
_______________________________________________________________
European 2.3% 3.5% 4.75% 0.00% 10.55%
Material
_______________________________________________________________
Faxon Canada estimates that price increases for 1997 will be
between 9.2% - 12.6% depending on the mix of each library
collection. To determine your overall estimated increase
multiply the percentage of your collection originating in each
geographic area by the total percentage increase for that area
and add the numbers together.See example, illustrated below.
Based on a Sample Collection:
% of Budget x Increase Total
Canadian 20% 9.2% 1.84%
US 60% 12.6% 7.56%
European 20% 10.55% 2.11%
Total Estimated Increase for this collection 11.51%
Key Assumptions:General Inflation: The role of general inflation, while slightly diminished in Canada, over other years, will continue to be a relatively significant factor in the US and Europe.
Page/Volume Changes: Increased manuscript submissions and pressures to publish will continue to increase publisher costs, despite stringent publication criteria.
Cancellations: The continued shift from paper based subscriptions to other technologies will be a major factor in publishers' price increases for 1997.
Currency Changes: One of this year's most significant factors is the increasing strength of the US dollar. A strong US dollar, in relation to Canadian currency will produce a higher than average price inflation in libraries with a large component of US based materials.
Postal Subsidies: On a positive note, Faxon Canada has learned that postal subsidies to Canadian publishers, which had been threatened, have been retained. A deal pending with Canada Post will ensure that subsidies will be maintained through 1999.
Summary: Expectations of a higher US dollar and higher than normal cancellation rates are the two most significant factors in Faxon Canada's projected increase of between 9.2% - 12.6% for 1997 subscriptions.
153.4 ROYAL SOCIETY OF CHEMISTRY JOURNAL PRICING 1996
Barry Anderson, Royal Society of Chemistry, fergusonk@rsc.org
[NOTE: Item 152.5, Dawson's pricing data for 1996, applies only to British libraries. The percentage increases in that article are not correct for United States and Canadian libraries. -ed.]
Item 152.5 entitled Subscription Pricing for 1996 indicates that The Royal Society of Chemistry has increased prices of its journals by 17.5%. As we have made attempts to keep our price increase as low as possible we would like to make a number of comments to place this average increase in perspective.
The RSC publishes over forty primary journals, review journals and current awareness bulletins. The revenue and circulation, however, is dominated by its main primary journals, _Chemical Communications_, _Dalton Transactions_, _Perkin Transactions_ and _Faraday Transactions_. The average sterling price rise of these is significantly less -- 10.1%. If one includes the remaining primary and review journals which account for almost 90% of our journal turnover and circulation the average price rise is 14.1%. We were forced to significantly increase the price of two low-price low-circulation titles; doing that markedly increased the "average" price of RSC journals. When relative circulations are taken into account the effect on customers is significantly less than your table would imply.
The RSC is a not-for-profit organisation committed to promote the science of chemistry. The prices of our journals are significantly less than those of most commercial publishers in the same subject, and, in face of declining library sales and increase in journal size, we make every effort to minimize price rises. We hope these factors will be taken into account when average price rises are assessed.
153.5 ACCESS VS OWNERSHIP AS IT RELATES TO LSU AND UNCOVER
Dana Roth, CalTech, dzrlib@cco.caltech.edu.
In regards the recent announcement of significant cancellations at LSU and an increased use of CARL UnCover, it seems to me that one very important question is not being discussed. Namely, how will this affect research at LSU? Literature use varies widely between disciplines and while this approach might work well for current awareness in the hard sciences, I am concerned about how engineers and applications people (including organic chemists) will be affected. The comments I hear from these people suggest that a lot of perusing is required before one finds a really useful article. Having to order everything you want to peruse would seem to encourage relying on information at hand rather than waiting and paying for articles that may be marginal or of little use.
On the other hand, these may only be the musings of an old man who is used to building collections. Is anyone else thinking about this question?
153.6 ONLINE JOURNALS: A NEW SURVEY
Steve Hitchcock, University of Southampton, s.hitchcock@ecs.soton.ac.uk.
Aimed at publishers, content producers, editors, authors and archivists, a new survey produced by the Open Journal project in the UK examines in detail the publishing features of over 80 online journals:
_A survey of STM online journals 1990-95: the calm before the storm_ -- http://journals.ecs.soton.ac.uk/survey/survey.html
Every journal covered in the survey is linked, over 100 links in total including links to referenced works. The paper offers the following insights:
- What are the most innovative and useful features of online journals, how widely are these features being adopted, and which are the best examples
- Which formats are popular and why
- What motivates new journals in different subject disciplines
- What funding mechanisms are being adopted, and why are some non-commercial journals facing a difficult future
- Where can new online journals be discovered reliably
- What are the latest factors influencing the radically different online journal of the future