174.1 FAXON'S 1998 PRELIMINARY PRICE PROJECTIONS, Adrian Alexander
174.2 GOING, AND GOING, AND . . . , Steve Hitchcock
174.3 ARTICLE IN _BIOSCIENCE_, Albert Henderson
174.4 NUCLEAR PHYSICIST HENRY H. BARSCHALL DIED Feb. 4 AT AGE 81,
American Physical Society
[Received February 27, 1997.]
Based on the latest information on publisher costs, world economic
conditions, and the current and projected values of the US dollar, Faxon
is projecting the following changes in journal subscription prices for the
1998 subscription year. Please note that these are preliminary projections
based on current conditions and are subject to change as the year
progresses.
We are projecting an approximate overall increase of 10.6% for a typical
academic research collection. This estimate is based on our expectation
that paper prices will remain stable, the US dollar will remain strong
against the major European currencies, and that the stronger pound sterling
will inflate UK prices by 5% to 7%.
General Inflation: Publishers in the U.S. and in Britain have indicated
that they expect their general cost of doing business to increase by
about 2.5% this year. Continental European publishers report a slightly
lower inflation factor of 2.0%.
Paper and Postage: We expect paper prices to remain stable for 1998.
However, we do expect to see some increases as a result of postal rate
hikes. Classification reform, which began implementation during 1996,
resulted in increased costs for second class mailers unable to comply
with the more stringent requirements. Our sources indicate that a rate
increase will be filed in the spring and, if approved, implemented during
early 1998. We have therefore included a small increase for postage of
0.25% for 1998.
Page/Volume Increase: Continued increases in manuscript submissions and
pressures to publish will increase publishers' costs. We are therefore
estimating a 3.0% to 3.5% increase again this year.
Cancellations: Subscription cancellations and shifts to electronic access
will continue to be a major factor in publishers' pricing decisions. We
will be able to provide a more accurate estimate of this factor later this
year when publishers have completed their analysis of 1997 renewals. We
have estimated cancellation rates of about 4.5% for U.S. and U.K.
publishers and 5.5% for Continental European publishers.
Currency: We expect the US dollar to remain strong through 1997 against the
major European currencies. Inflation generally is low in continental
Europe, so we are projecting no increase in price from these publishers as
a result of currency exchange, and perhaps a DECREASE of as much as 3.0% in
some cases. However, we do expect the pound sterling to remain relatively
strong against the dollar, inflating prices for UK-published journals by as
much as 5 to 7%. There is speculation that the upcoming elections in Great
Britain will result in an interest rate hike during the second half of
1997.
We will keep a close eye on the situation, and report any changes as the
year progresses.
174.2 GOING, AND GOING, AND . . . .
[Received February 28, 1997.]
Some interesting points converge in issue 173 of the newsletter.
Congratulations! Presumably someone should commission the book 'Serials
crisis, what crisis?' Surely if it were a real crisis it would have been
resolved by now. Yet we know that many people, in the library sector
especially, have to make very painful decisions.
So what's the answer? Bernard Naylor (173.4) makes some points about
European monetary union, but recent experience seems to be that whatever
the currency, whatever the exchange rate, wherever you are, journal prices
just go up. Take the price increase factors from the EBSCO press release:
And that's just this year's factors! Last year you could have included the
rising price of paper, but this year the price has begun to fall, so it's
not in the list above. In fact, each year you can perm any factors you wish
from a general purpose list, but the net result will be the same. Many of
these factors are cyclical, but prices are not, of course.
What is new here is the great hope of lower journal prices, electronic
journals, has now been hijacked to the cause of higher prices as well, and
now it's official. It's not surprising really, since the large majority of
today's e-journals are copied from print editions.
Another example of the tough decisions being deferred.
If this were truly an open, commercial market, most of the these factors
would be nonsensical. Publishers realise it isn't, of course, and if it
were, perhaps our free-to-use library system would not be sustainable...
perhaps.
Conclusion. If there really is a serials crisis, it has yet to happen.
NOSPI will see a good many more issues yet.
174.3 ARTICLE IN BIOSCIENCE
In the March issue of Bioscience(47,3:175-179), science writer Tom Abate
notes that resistance to price increases has put publishers in a bind,
retarding the progress of electronic journals. Included are interviews with
representatives of American Chemical Society, Academic Press, Springer-
Verlag, American Society of Chemistry and Molecular Biology, American
Institute of Physics, Scientific Design & Information Inc., AAAS, Carol
Tenopir of the University of Tennessee, and Richard Lucier, librarian at
the University of California - San Francisco.
174.4 NUCLEAR PHYSICIST HENRY H. BARSCHALL DIED FEBRUARY 4 AT AGE 81
[Received February 11, 1997.]
During World War II, Barschall worked on the atomic bomb project.
Ironically, in 1970 during the Vietnam War, his laboratory at the
University of Wisconsin was destroyed by a terrorist bomb. He devoted the
remainder of his career to medical uses of neutrons. His last years were
spent defending himself against a law suit resulting from his study of the
disparity in cost effectiveness of physics journals. Barschall
characteristically refused to back down in what he saw as a simple issue of
free speech.
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grenoble.fr/NSPI/NSPI.html.
Adrian Alexander, The Faxon Company, alexander@faxon.comNorth American Titles - 10.25%
Continental European Titles - 8.25 to 11.25%
United Kingdom Titles - 15.75% to 17.75%
Other - 7.6%
Steve Hitchcock, University of Southampton,
S.Hitchcock@ecs.soton.ac.uk>It was 8 years ago today that our first issue appeared.
>What's going on? The "serials crisis" was supposed to be
>long over with by now. But we just keep going, and going,
>and . . . .>The effect of continuing serial cancellations on price
>increases also should not be understated. As total
>circulation falls, publishers increase subscription rates to
>replace revenue lost due to cancellations. In addition to
>currency exchange rates, cancellations and the prospect of
>electronic journals, other factors affecting journal prices
>include: page increases, volume expansion and basic
>inflation.
Albert Henderson, Publishing Research Quarterly,
70244.1532@compuserve.com
From the American Physical Society, submitted by Paula Sullenger,
Auburn University, psulleng@lib.auburn.edu
Statements of fact and opinion appearing in the _Newsletter on Serials
Pricing Issues_ are made on the responsibility of the authors alone, and
do not imply the endorsement of the editor, the editorial board, or the
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
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The NEWSLETTER ON SERIALS PRICING ISSUES (ISSN: 1046-3410) is published
by the editor through Academic and Networking Technology at the
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, as news is available.
Editor: Marcia Tuttle, Internet: tuttle@gibbs.oit.unc.edu; Paper mail:
Serials Department, CB #3938 Davis Library, University of North Carolina
at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill NC 27514-8890; Telephone: 919 962-8047; FAX: 919 962-4450.
Editorial Board: Deana Astle (Clemson University), Christian Boissonnas
(Cornell University), Jerry Curtis (Springer Verlag New York), Isabel
Czech (Institute for Scientific Information), Janet Fisher (MIT Press),
Fred Friend (University College, London), Charles Hamaker (Louisiana
State University), Daniel Jones (University of Texas Health Science
Center), Michael Markwith (Swets North America), James Mouw (University
of Chicago), and Heather Steele (Blackwell's Periodicals Division). The
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