NEWSLETTER ON SERIALS PRICING ISSUES

NO 231 -July 23, 1999

Editor: Marcia Tuttle

ISSN: 1046-3410


CONTENTS

231.1 WILEY INTERSCIENCE RESPONDS TO CUSTOMER PRESSURE, David Crawford
231.2 EBSCO YEAR 2000 PRICE PROJECTIONS, Press Release
231.3 ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE ON MCB UNIVERSITY PRESS PRICES, Barbara Via


231.1 WILEY INTERSCIENCE RESPONDS TO CUSTOMER PRESSURE
David Crawford, Health Sciences Librarian and Serials Co-Ordinator, McGill University, crawford@library.mcgill.ca

[Received June 30, 1999]

I am glad to tell you that customer pressure DOES work! Wiley is giving up the mandatory username/password requirement. See excerpt from Press Release below.

Wiley InterScience Update

New York, NY June 24, 1999 - Eric A. Swanson, Senior Vice President, Scientific, Technical, and Medical Publishing, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., today reported on the success of Wiley InterScience (http://www.interscience.wiley.com) in the six months since its commercial launch....

The success of Wiley InterScience depends on acceptance by readers and institutional customers. Accordingly, he announced a decision, based on market feedback, to change a policy: Beginning in August, 1999, the User ID/Password requirement for institutional authorized user access will be eliminated and seamless IP address-based access will become the standard. Users will still have the option to choose to register for a personal home page, which offers a number of customizable search and storage options. This will remove a potential barrier for users who are concerned about their anonymity or who find the requirement inconvenient. Customers will receive a detailed announcement explaining the change in the near future.

"Our objective is to make the information published in our journals as accessible to our customers as possible," explained Mr. Swanson.

231.2 EBSCO YEAR 2000 PRICE PROJECTIONS
Press release dated June 26, 1999. Contact: Thomas J. Mitchell, tjmitchell@ebsco.com

BIRMINGHAM, Ala., U.S.A. -- Journal price increases for the year 2000 will likely be impacted by the usual factors of general inflation, page and volume expansion, cancellations, currency fluctuations, and publisher profit and motivations. Additionally, online journal issues such as the cost of technology could impact journal prices as well.

Pricing models for electronic journals are still in flux as many publishers determine the best way to produce and deliver their content electronically. Publishers continue to indicate the bulk of journal costs is related to the editorial and review process and not the method of delivery. With large investments in information technology, delivery/access models for end users, and research and development, publishers are seeking pricing options that will preserve their revenue streams while meeting market demands for electronically accessed information.

Year 2000 Price Projections. Based on publisher input and historical analysis of journal prices, EBSCO Subscription Services is projecting a base price increase1 of 9 to 11 percent for U.S. and non-U.S. titles for year 2000 orders. The base price increase is the price of the subscription without regard to the effect of currency conversion when the subscription is bought by a subscriber in another country.

Projections by Customer Billing Currency. The impact of currency fluctuations must be considered when projecting final price increases in customers' local currencies. Generally, final projected price increases for non-U.S. customers are based on the estimated base price increase plus the relative value of the customer billing currency at the time of projection compared to the applicable publisher currency at the time of invoicing in the previous year.

* Euro. The Euro should have a stabilizing effect on periodical pricing for libraries within the countries participating in the European Monetary Union (EMU).2 The cost of journals priced in Euros or in currencies of EMU nations should be transparent with the elimination of cross-border currency exchanges. With the socio-political, economic and cultural differences among nations participating in the EMU, it remains to be seen in the long term whether the U.S. dollar or Euro will emerge as the favorite currency. As of this writing, the Euro has weakened almost 10 percent against the U.S. dollar since its January 1 launch.

The consensus among currency analysts appears to be a continuing weakening of the Euro versus both the U.S. dollar and the British pound for the remainder of this year. Strong U.S. economic indicators as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's current bias toward raising interest rates are seen as key factors in keeping the dollar strong vs. the Euro in the near term. In fact, many analysts anticipate the Euro on parity with the dollar by late summer/early fall 1999. If this occurs, this would mean a 13 percent stronger dollar versus the Euro as compared to the Euro's launch in January 1999. If this does take place, customers paying in U.S. dollars will likely see price increases for Europe be well below the predicted base price increase of 9 to 11 percent. In fact, it would not be surprising if some Continental European journals actually show price decreases this year. Of course, it is too early to definitely count on this to occur. Likewise, the weakening of the Euro against the pound should also result in lower price increases for customers paying in British pounds.

Although the weakening Euro is likely good news for customers paying in U.S. dollars and British pounds, it is bad news for others. British and U.S. titles will likely cost customers paying in Euros or EMU currencies significantly more this year. Price increases approaching 20 percent could result.

Australia, New Zealand and Canada have all seen their currencies strengthen against the U.S. dollar, British pound and Euro. If current trends continue, libraries in these countries should see price increases below the predicted base of 9 to 11 percent. In fact, they could see little or no price increase for material priced in Euros or currencies of countries participating in the EMU.

It seems that negative currency news has been the trend in South Africa for many years. Based on current trends, South African libraries paying with rands could likely see price increases above the forecasted base for U.S. and British titles. However, price increases for material priced in Euros or currencies of countries participating in the EMU could be held at or below the forecasted base increases of 9 to 11 percent.

As mentioned previously, the British pound has strengthened against the Euro and currencies of countries participating in the EMU. As a result, the expectation is customers in the U.K. will see price increases below the base for most continental European material. Conversely, however, the pound has weakened slightly versus the dollar when compared to fall 1998. As a result, U.K. customers could likely see U.S. material increase in a range slightly higher than the base.

The chart below provides forecasted journal price increases for year 2000 subscriptions based on customer billing currency along with publisher currency and considers estimated currency impact.

Projected Price Increase by Customer Billing Currency
Customer Billing Currency U.S. Journals U.K. Journals European Journals
Australian dollar 5-7% 3-5% -2-0%
British pound 12-14% 9-11% 3-5%
Canadian dollar 5-7% 3-5% -2-0%
Euro 18-20% 16-18% 9-11%
New Zealand dollar 6-8% 4-6% -2-0%
South African rand 16-18% 15-17% 8-10%
U.S. dollar 9-11% 7-9% 4-6%

Conservative Budgeting. As always, EBSCO recommends all customers add 2 to 5 percent to the estimated price increases for budgets to protect from a weakening of the currency in which they are invoiced between now and when subscription rates are paid. EBSCO continually communicates with major publishers regarding projected price increases and monitors world currency exchange rates. Should we see major developments in these areas, we will update our projections.

1 Early May Exchange rates were used for these projections.
2 Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

231.3 ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE ON MCB UNIVERSITY PRESS PRICES
Barbara Via, Information Science Bibliographer, University at Albany, bv848@cnsvax.albany.edu

I wish to respond to Eleanor Cook's second article regarding MCB University Press and their pricing of library science journals. I applaud Ms. Cook's efforts to talk directly to MCB and also to editors of their journals. Unfortunately, as a longtime bibliographer for library and information science, I find MCB's justifications for increased prices unconvincing. First of all, not every library needs or wants the value-added option of full-text online for every title in the collection. Second, MCB's price increases are often much greater than simply doubling the existing price. My library used to subscribe to both Collection Building and The Bottom Line, when they were published by Neal Schuman. Our invoice records indicate that we paid the following prices for these journals for the years noted.

Collection Building 1995 - $63.47 1999 - $313.65
The Bottom Line 1997 - $154.96 1999 - $414.96

We have cancelled our subscriptions to these titles effective with 12/31/99. We have done so reluctantly, but feel that the content of these journals simply does not justify these prices. These are not research-oriented journals, but rather focus on practice-oriented pieces.

I appreciate the need for global perspectives in the literature of library and information science. Many quality journals in the field include articles from countries worldwide. Since these articles are presumably transmitted electronically to the publisher, I fail to see what global perspectives have to do with higher prices.

I hope that MCB University Press is open to reviewing their pricing policies. Surely the marketing folks at the press recognize that the audience for library and information science journals is unlikely to be able to absorb huge price increases for the journals that MCB purchases from other publishers.

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Statements of fact and opinion appearing in the Newsletter on Serials Pricing Issues are made on the responsibility of the authors alone, and do not imply the endorsement of the editor, the editorial board, or the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
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The Newsletter on Serials Pricing Issues (ISSN: 1046-3410) is published by the editor through Academic Technology and Networks at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, as news is available. Editor: Marcia Tuttle, Internet: marcia_tuttle@unc.edu; Telephone: 919 929-3513; Fax: 919 960-0847. Editorial Board: Keith Courtney (Taylor and Francis Ltd), Fred Friend (University College, London), Birdie MacLennan (University of Vermont), Michael Markwith (Swets Subscription Services, Inc.), James Mouw (University of Chicago), Heather Steele (Blackwell's Periodicals Division), David Stern (Yale University), and Scott Wicks (Cornell University).

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